As of October 25, 2025, Hurricane Melissa has formed in the Caribbean and is rapidly intensifying. Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and other meteorological services predict it is likely to become a Category 5 hurricane within the next 48 hours. This makes it a catastrophic threat to Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas.
Current status and forecast
- Intensity: Melissa has already reached Category 2 strength, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph as of 8 p.m. EDT on October 25. Favorable conditions, including low wind shear and very warm Caribbean waters, are fueling its rapid intensification.
- Path: The storm is moving very slowly to the west at about 3 mph. Its current track is expected to bring the core of the hurricane over or very near Jamaica early this week, likely on Tuesday. It is then projected to move toward eastern Cuba and the Bahamas.
- Threats: The primary concerns are extreme winds, life-threatening storm surge, and devastating rainfall.
- Wind: Hurricane-force winds extend outward from the center, with forecasters predicting Category 4 or 5 strength at landfall in Jamaica.
- Rainfall: With its slow forward speed, Melissa is expected to produce extreme rainfall amounts, possibly up to 40 inches in some areas. This poses a major risk of catastrophic flash flooding and landslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of Jamaica and Haiti.
- Storm Surge: Life-threatening storm surges are expected, with some forecasts projecting 9 to 13 feet above ground level along Jamaica’s southern coast.
Impact on Caribbean nations
- Jamaica: The country is under a hurricane warning and is bracing for a historic and potentially record-breaking storm. Officials have urged evacuations and airports have been closed.
- Haiti and Dominican Republic: These nations, particularly the southern regions, are at high risk for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides from torrential rainfall. Some deaths and displacement have already been reported in Hispaniola.
- Cuba and Bahamas: Residents in eastern Cuba and the southern Bahamas are urged to monitor the storm’s progress closely, as they could be affected later in the week.
Florida and U.S. mainland threat
At this time, Melissa is not forecast to make a direct hit on the U.S. mainland. The current track shows the storm turning northeast and heading into the Atlantic after affecting the Caribbean. However, indirect impacts, such as dangerous surf and rip currents, could affect the southeastern U.S. coast. Forecasters continue to monitor for any changes in the track.
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